Linking Cocoa Production Specialization with Consumption Forecasts to Assess Global Supply and Demand Dynamics

Abstract

Cocoa plays a strategic role in the global agricultural economy, yet cocoaproducing regions do not necessarily represent the main centers of cocoa consumption. This study analyzes the relationship between cocoa production specialization and consumption dynamics across Africa, America, and Asia. Location Quotient (LQ) analysis was used to identify countries where cocoa functions as a base agricultural subsector, while autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were applied to forecast future cocoa consumption trends. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that Africa remains the dominant cocoa-producing region, followed by America and Asia, although production growth patterns vary across countries. The LQ results show that cocoa is a base subsector in selected countries within each region, with particularly strong specialization in several American and African countries. In Asia, cocoa specialization is more limited, with Indonesia and Timor-Leste standing out as notable cases. Despite
Africa’s dominance in production, its per capita cocoa consumption remains the lowest among the three regions, reflecting the export-oriented structure of its cocoa sector. The Kruskal–Wallis test confirms significant regional differences in cocoa consumption patterns. ARIMA forecasts indicate relatively stable consumption in America, moderate growth in Africa, and stronger growth potential in Asia. By combining LQ and ARIMA, this study distinguishes between regions that are specialized in cocoa production and regions with expanding consumption demand. The findings provide useful insights for cocoa trade planning, agricultural policy, and sustainable supply-chain development.