Variability of factors influencing coffee export performance in Indonesia.
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Dec 16, 2023
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Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output and commodity price volatility of developing countries especially during pandemic era. The most visible impact from an economic perspective is the change of price expectation on people's basic needs which are in line with the decline of economic growth in Indonesia. This has significant implications, particularly considering the important role of coffee in supporting the country's economy. The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the performance of coffee exports in Indonesia. The novelty of this study lay on the used national dataset within the range of 20 years (2000-2020) and including the pandemic effect on coffee sector performance. We examines the relationship between variables and coffee exports in Indonesia using unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that coffee exports, total area, coffee production, coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have significant influences on coffee exports. The variables of total area and coffee production impact coffee exports negatively in the long term, while coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have mixed effects. In the short term, total area and coffee production significantly affect coffee exports, while coffee prices and gross national income show no significant impact. Coffee imports have a significant negative influence on coffee exports in the short term. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of the coffee industry in Indonesia.
Empirical evidence is lacking on the nexus between coffee commodity output and commodity price volatility of developing countries especially during pandemic era. The most visible impact from an economic perspective is the change of price expectation on people's basic needs which are in line with the decline of economic growth in Indonesia. This has significant implications, particularly considering the important role of coffee in supporting the country's economy. The aim of this study is to examine the factors that influence the performance of coffee exports in Indonesia. The novelty of this study lay on the used national dataset within the range of 20 years (2000-2020) and including the pandemic effect on coffee sector performance. We examines the relationship between variables and coffee exports in Indonesia using unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and an Error Correction Model (ECM). The results show that coffee exports, total area, coffee production, coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have significant influences on coffee exports. The variables of total area and coffee production impact coffee exports negatively in the long term, while coffee price, gross national income, and coffee imports have mixed effects. In the short term, total area and coffee production significantly affect coffee exports, while coffee prices and gross national income show no significant impact. Coffee imports have a significant negative influence on coffee exports in the short term. These findings contribute to understanding the dynamics of the coffee industry in Indonesia.
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Yanuarti, R., & Widjaya, D. (2023). Variability of factors influencing coffee export performance in Indonesia. Pelita Perkebunan (a Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal), 39(3), 260-270. https://doi.org/10.22302/iccri.jur.pelitaperkebunan.v39i3.556
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References
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Ardana, Y. (2016). Pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap indeks saham Syariah di Indonesia: model ECM. Esensi: Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 6(1), 17–30.
Aryati, A. (2020). Factors Affecting The Export of Coffee In South Sulawesi Province. Point Of View Research Economic Development, 1(3), 39–50.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2021). https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/54/770/1/luas-areal-tanaman-perkebunan-rakyat-menurut-jenis-tanaman.html (Diakses pada: 16 Februari 2023).
Boaventura, P. S. M., Carla, C. A., Cecilia, L. A dan Jose, S. A. (2018). Value Co-Creation in The Specialty Coffee Value Chain: The Third-Wave Coffee Movement. Journal of Business Management, 58(3), 254-266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020180306.
Bekele, W. T., & Mersha, F. G. (2019). A dynamic panel gravity model application on the determinant factors of Ethiopia’s coffee export performance. Annals of Data Science, 6, 787–806.
Chen, L. (2021). Research on Forecast Model of Chinese Coffee Export Trade Market Based on SVM. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1774, 1-8. https://doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1774/1/012068.
Damanik, Z., & Ayu, S. F. (2020). Price transmission of Arabica coffee between North Sumatra with state main export purpose (America-Europe). IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 454(1), 12026.
Dasipah, E., Dety, S dan Dian, P. F. (2021). Faktor Kelembagaan, Sosial Ekonomi dan Penerapan (Adopsi) Teknologi Terhadap Keberhasilan Usahatani Kopi Arabika Java Preanger. PASPALUM: Jurnal Ilmiah Pertanian, 9(1), 93-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.35138/paspalum.v9i1.282.
Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series (Third ed.). In New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Fan, S., Paul, T., Ping, C., Geoffry, S dan Les, C. (2021). Food system resilience and COVID-19 – Lessons from the Asian experience. Global Food Security, 28, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100501.
Fitriani, F., Arifin, B., & Ismono, H. (2021). Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 4(1), 120–133.
Girsang, L., Sukiyono, K., & Asriani, P. S. (2018). Error correction model for Pakistan export demand for Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Journal of Agricultural Science, 1(2), 68–77.
Granger, C. W. J. (1986). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48(3), 213–228.
Gujarati, D. (2012). Econometrics., Basics of Eugenia, Book 1 Issue 5. (Translated by Mardanugrah, et al.). In Salemba Four.
Hasanah, R. U., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (2022). Analysis Of The Factors Influencing Indonesia’s Coffee Exports In 2000-2020. Journal Of Humanities, Social Sciences And Business (JHSSB), 2(1), 63–74.
Hung Anh, N., & Bokelmann, W. (2019). Determinants of smallholders’ market preferences: The case of sustainable certified coffee farmers in Vietnam. Sustainability, 11(10), 2897.
Hussien, H. B. (2015). Determinants of Coffee Export Supply in Ethiopia: Error Correction Modeling Approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(5), 21–38.
Iladini, K dan Neli, A. (2020). Analisis Time Series Pendekatan Error Correction Mechanism: Pengaruh Penerapan ACFTA Terhadap Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke China Periode 2006-2018. Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya, 4(2), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.21009/JSA.04203.
Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2018). An exploration of dynamical relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. Jung Wan Lee, Tantatape Brahmasrene/Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 5(3), 7–17.
Mardhiah., Akhmad, B dan Safrida. (2020). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi di Aceh. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pertanian, 5(2), 192-202. https://doi.org/10.17969/jimfp.v5i2.14865.
Murindahabi, T., Li, Q., Nisingizwe, E., & Ekanayake, E. (2019). Do coffee exports have impact on long-term economic growth of countries? Agricultural Economics, 65(8), 385–393.
Meyer, B. H., Brian, P dan Xuguang, S. S. (2022). The Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations. International Journal of Forecasting, 38, 529-544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009.
Murindahabi, T., Qiang, L., Eric, N dan Ekanayake, E. M. B. P. (2019). Do Coffee Exports Have Impact on Long-Term Economic Growth of Countries?. Agricultural Economics, 8, 385-393. https://doi.org/10.17221/283/2018-AGRICECON.
Muttoharoh, V., Rahma, N dan Candra, M. (2018). Daya Saing dan Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Arabika Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Daerah, 7(3), 127-136. https://doi.org/10.22437/pdpd.v7i3.6904.
Nopriyandi, R., & Haryadi, H. (2017). Analisis ekspor kopi Indonesia. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 12(1), 1–10.
Okim, F., & Hanani, N. (2022). The Impact of Input and Output Prices on Indonesian Coffee Production and Trade Performance.
Oko-Isu, A., Chukwu, A. U., Ofoegbu, G. N., Igberi, C. O., Ololo, K. O., Agbanike, T. F., Anochiwa, L., Uwajumogu, N., Enyoghasim, M. O., & Okoro, U. N. (2019). Coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility: The Nigeria experience. Sustainability, 11(13), 3503.
Onu, D. O., Simonyan, J. B., & Onyenweaku, C. E. (2017). Determinants of rice production and import in Nigeria (1970-2016): An application of Co-Integration and Error Correction Model. Futo Journal Series (FUTOJNLS), 3(2), 16–34.
Pakpahan, A. R. S. (2012). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor daging sapi di Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 1(2).
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
Prajanti, S. D. W., Pramono, S. E., & Adzmin, F. (2020). Factors influencing Indonesia coffee exports volume. International Conference on Research and Academic Community Services (ICRACOS 2019), 41–45.
Ridaura, S. L., Arie, S., Luis, B. E., Jennifer, W., Maria, M. C., Carlos, G. E., Martin, A. L. R., Rene, M. E. M., Edmundo, M. G dan Tomas S. G. B. (2021). Immediate impact of COVID-19 pandemic on farming systems in Central America and Mexico. Agricultural Systems, 192, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103178.
Rahmatullah, R., Oktarina, Y., & Sari, Y. (2022). Analisis Usahatani Kopi Rakyat Dan Kontribusinya Terhadap Pendapatan Total Keluarga Di Kecamatan Semende Darat Laut Kabupaten Muaraenim. Journal of Agriculture Social and Economic, 1(1), 8–19.
Sabirin, W. Z.-A. F.-F. (n.d.). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Di Indonesia.
Sihombing, F. N., Supriana, T., & Ayu, S. F. (2020). Identifying the Factors Contributing to the Volume of Coffee Export from North Sumatra to the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 36(1), 83.
Suryana, C., Asriani, P. S., & Badrudin, R. (2014). Perilaku Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Horizontal Beras di Propinsi Bengkulu. Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 131–146.
Setyoko, P. I dan Denok, K. (2022). Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Performance: A Qualitative Study in Indonesia. Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management Research, 3(3), 315-324. https://doi.org/10.7777/jiemar.
Sitanini, A., Agus, S dan Irene, K. E. W. (2020). Faktor–Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Jepang. JSEP: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 13(3), 253-263. https://doi.org/10.19184/jsep.v13i3.18724.
Soegoto, E. S., Senny, L., Lia, W dan Sri, S. (2022). Agricultural Entrepreneurial Strategy During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Case Study of Garut, Indonesia. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 9(1), 138-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i1.872.
Tambunan, T. T. H. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis and Its Impact on Cooperatives: A Case from Indonesia. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3877133.
Zikria, virda. (2020). Pengaruh Volatilitas Harga Kopi Terhadap Ekspor di Indonesia. Jurnal Agriuma, 2(2 SE-Articles), 122–130. https://doi.org/10.31289/agr.v2i2.4399
Ardana, Y. (2016). Pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap indeks saham Syariah di Indonesia: model ECM. Esensi: Jurnal Bisnis Dan Manajemen, 6(1), 17–30.
Aryati, A. (2020). Factors Affecting The Export of Coffee In South Sulawesi Province. Point Of View Research Economic Development, 1(3), 39–50.
Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). (2021). https://www.bps.go.id/indicator/54/770/1/luas-areal-tanaman-perkebunan-rakyat-menurut-jenis-tanaman.html (Diakses pada: 16 Februari 2023).
Boaventura, P. S. M., Carla, C. A., Cecilia, L. A dan Jose, S. A. (2018). Value Co-Creation in The Specialty Coffee Value Chain: The Third-Wave Coffee Movement. Journal of Business Management, 58(3), 254-266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/S0034-759020180306.
Bekele, W. T., & Mersha, F. G. (2019). A dynamic panel gravity model application on the determinant factors of Ethiopia’s coffee export performance. Annals of Data Science, 6, 787–806.
Chen, L. (2021). Research on Forecast Model of Chinese Coffee Export Trade Market Based on SVM. Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 1774, 1-8. https://doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1774/1/012068.
Damanik, Z., & Ayu, S. F. (2020). Price transmission of Arabica coffee between North Sumatra with state main export purpose (America-Europe). IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 454(1), 12026.
Dasipah, E., Dety, S dan Dian, P. F. (2021). Faktor Kelembagaan, Sosial Ekonomi dan Penerapan (Adopsi) Teknologi Terhadap Keberhasilan Usahatani Kopi Arabika Java Preanger. PASPALUM: Jurnal Ilmiah Pertanian, 9(1), 93-103. http://dx.doi.org/10.35138/paspalum.v9i1.282.
Enders, W. (2010). Applied Econometric Time Series (Third ed.). In New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Fan, S., Paul, T., Ping, C., Geoffry, S dan Les, C. (2021). Food system resilience and COVID-19 – Lessons from the Asian experience. Global Food Security, 28, 1-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100501.
Fitriani, F., Arifin, B., & Ismono, H. (2021). Indonesian coffee exports and its relation to global market integration. Journal of Socioeconomics and Development, 4(1), 120–133.
Girsang, L., Sukiyono, K., & Asriani, P. S. (2018). Error correction model for Pakistan export demand for Indonesia’s Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Journal of Agricultural Science, 1(2), 68–77.
Granger, C. W. J. (1986). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48(3), 213–228.
Gujarati, D. (2012). Econometrics., Basics of Eugenia, Book 1 Issue 5. (Translated by Mardanugrah, et al.). In Salemba Four.
Hasanah, R. U., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (2022). Analysis Of The Factors Influencing Indonesia’s Coffee Exports In 2000-2020. Journal Of Humanities, Social Sciences And Business (JHSSB), 2(1), 63–74.
Hung Anh, N., & Bokelmann, W. (2019). Determinants of smallholders’ market preferences: The case of sustainable certified coffee farmers in Vietnam. Sustainability, 11(10), 2897.
Hussien, H. B. (2015). Determinants of Coffee Export Supply in Ethiopia: Error Correction Modeling Approach. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(5), 21–38.
Iladini, K dan Neli, A. (2020). Analisis Time Series Pendekatan Error Correction Mechanism: Pengaruh Penerapan ACFTA Terhadap Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke China Periode 2006-2018. Jurnal Statistika dan Aplikasinya, 4(2), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.21009/JSA.04203.
Lee, J. W., & Brahmasrene, T. (2018). An exploration of dynamical relationships between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Korea. Jung Wan Lee, Tantatape Brahmasrene/Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 5(3), 7–17.
Mardhiah., Akhmad, B dan Safrida. (2020). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi di Aceh. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Pertanian, 5(2), 192-202. https://doi.org/10.17969/jimfp.v5i2.14865.
Murindahabi, T., Li, Q., Nisingizwe, E., & Ekanayake, E. (2019). Do coffee exports have impact on long-term economic growth of countries? Agricultural Economics, 65(8), 385–393.
Meyer, B. H., Brian, P dan Xuguang, S. S. (2022). The Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic on Business Expectations. International Journal of Forecasting, 38, 529-544. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009.
Murindahabi, T., Qiang, L., Eric, N dan Ekanayake, E. M. B. P. (2019). Do Coffee Exports Have Impact on Long-Term Economic Growth of Countries?. Agricultural Economics, 8, 385-393. https://doi.org/10.17221/283/2018-AGRICECON.
Muttoharoh, V., Rahma, N dan Candra, M. (2018). Daya Saing dan Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Arabika Indonesia di Pasar Internasional. Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Daerah, 7(3), 127-136. https://doi.org/10.22437/pdpd.v7i3.6904.
Nopriyandi, R., & Haryadi, H. (2017). Analisis ekspor kopi Indonesia. Jurnal Paradigma Ekonomika, 12(1), 1–10.
Okim, F., & Hanani, N. (2022). The Impact of Input and Output Prices on Indonesian Coffee Production and Trade Performance.
Oko-Isu, A., Chukwu, A. U., Ofoegbu, G. N., Igberi, C. O., Ololo, K. O., Agbanike, T. F., Anochiwa, L., Uwajumogu, N., Enyoghasim, M. O., & Okoro, U. N. (2019). Coffee output reaction to climate change and commodity price volatility: The Nigeria experience. Sustainability, 11(13), 3503.
Onu, D. O., Simonyan, J. B., & Onyenweaku, C. E. (2017). Determinants of rice production and import in Nigeria (1970-2016): An application of Co-Integration and Error Correction Model. Futo Journal Series (FUTOJNLS), 3(2), 16–34.
Pakpahan, A. R. S. (2012). Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi impor daging sapi di Indonesia. Economics Development Analysis Journal, 1(2).
Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346.
Prajanti, S. D. W., Pramono, S. E., & Adzmin, F. (2020). Factors influencing Indonesia coffee exports volume. International Conference on Research and Academic Community Services (ICRACOS 2019), 41–45.
Ridaura, S. L., Arie, S., Luis, B. E., Jennifer, W., Maria, M. C., Carlos, G. E., Martin, A. L. R., Rene, M. E. M., Edmundo, M. G dan Tomas S. G. B. (2021). Immediate impact of COVID-19 pandemic on farming systems in Central America and Mexico. Agricultural Systems, 192, 1-12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103178.
Rahmatullah, R., Oktarina, Y., & Sari, Y. (2022). Analisis Usahatani Kopi Rakyat Dan Kontribusinya Terhadap Pendapatan Total Keluarga Di Kecamatan Semende Darat Laut Kabupaten Muaraenim. Journal of Agriculture Social and Economic, 1(1), 8–19.
Sabirin, W. Z.-A. F.-F. (n.d.). Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Kopi Di Indonesia.
Sihombing, F. N., Supriana, T., & Ayu, S. F. (2020). Identifying the Factors Contributing to the Volume of Coffee Export from North Sumatra to the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture, 36(1), 83.
Suryana, C., Asriani, P. S., & Badrudin, R. (2014). Perilaku Harga dan Integrasi Pasar Horizontal Beras di Propinsi Bengkulu. Jurnal AGRISEP: Kajian Masalah Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian Dan Agribisnis, 131–146.
Setyoko, P. I dan Denok, K. (2022). Impact of the Covid 19 Pandemic on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Performance: A Qualitative Study in Indonesia. Journal of Industrial Engineering & Management Research, 3(3), 315-324. https://doi.org/10.7777/jiemar.
Sitanini, A., Agus, S dan Irene, K. E. W. (2020). Faktor–Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Jepang. JSEP: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian, 13(3), 253-263. https://doi.org/10.19184/jsep.v13i3.18724.
Soegoto, E. S., Senny, L., Lia, W dan Sri, S. (2022). Agricultural Entrepreneurial Strategy During The Covid-19 Pandemic: Case Study of Garut, Indonesia. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 9(1), 138-150. http://dx.doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i1.872.
Tambunan, T. T. H. (2021). Covid-19 Pandemic Crisis and Its Impact on Cooperatives: A Case from Indonesia. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3877133.
Zikria, virda. (2020). Pengaruh Volatilitas Harga Kopi Terhadap Ekspor di Indonesia. Jurnal Agriuma, 2(2 SE-Articles), 122–130. https://doi.org/10.31289/agr.v2i2.4399